Institution-fitted persistence model
Term-to-term persistence prediction for every enrolled student, refit each term.
The model is fitted on your students, your programmes and your academic calendar. We do not ship a sector-average model, because our transfer study found one loses roughly 19 points of precision when moved between institutions.
Every refit is validated against a simple attendance-and-assessment baseline on held-out data. If the fitted model does not beat that baseline we tell you and do not deploy it.
A prediction is not a diagnosis. Precision falls for very small programmes and for first-term students with almost no behavioural history — we report those cohorts separately rather than averaging them away.
| Refresh | Nightly scoring, refit each term |
|---|---|
| Outcome | Term-to-term persistence |
| Validation | Held-out, against a baseline |
| Explanation | Top contributing factors per student |
| Availability | Live with partner institutions |